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Featured Title: A Bull in China


A Bull in China

The book, by Jim Rogers, is subtitled: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market. Anyone with investment horizons farther afield than the domestic market may well be familiar with the author's name. Jim Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund, a global investment partnership. During the 1970s, the portfolio gained 4,200%, while the S&P rose less than 47%. He then 'retired' at the irritatingly early age of 37.

However, Rogers didn't let the grass grow under his feet. Two round-the-world trips, the first on two wheels in 1993 (thus significantly pre-dating Charlie Boorman and Ewan Macgregor's motorcycling exploits) are recounted in previous books; management of his own portfolio; academic posts and regular appearances as a media commentator have kept him busy.

This latest book continues and expands Rogers' fascination with and belief in the prospects for the Chinese economy. If the twentieth century was the American century, Rogers believes the twenty-first century belongs to China and sets out to show how investors can get in on the ground floor of "the greatest economic boom since England's Industrial Revolution."

The author may surely be described as a Sinophile - he first went to China in 1984 in preparation for his round-the-world motorcycle trip. But rather than describe Rogers as an 'old' China hand it probably makes more sense to describe him as a 'new China' hand. And it is this 'new China' that has enthralled him.

The facts speak for themselves:

  • The Chinese economy's growth rate has averaged 9% since the start of the 1980s.
  • China's savings rate is over 35% (in America, it's 2%).
  • 40% of China's output goes to exports (so there's no crippling foreign debt).
  • $60 billion a year in direct foreign investment, combined with a trade surplus, has brought
  • Beijing's foreign currency reserves to over $1 trillion.
  • China's fixed assets - ports, bridges, and roads - double every two and a half years.

Of course, there are those who believe the wheels could come off after the Beijing Olympics. Rogers concedes the local economy around Beijing itself could suffer but points out that Beijing is actually only a tiny part of China.

The other key stumbling block is the Renminbi. Jim Rogers commented, "It's hard to be a modern country with a blocked currency." He believes the Chinese authorities will allow the Renminbi to float, possibly before the Beijing Olympics and almost certainly before the Shanghai World Fair in 2010.

A Bull in China reviews each key sector of the Chinese economy and identifies a number of potential investment targets. However, Rogers was at pains to point out to me that the book is not offering a selection of 'hot tips'. Rather, he said, "The book is designed as a base - this is what's happening in China and this is what it means."

If current projections hold, China will surpass the United States as the world's largest economy in as little as twenty years. Rogers explains the state policies that are driving earnings and innovation and illuminated the potentially confusing mish-mash of the A-shares, B-shares, and ADRs of Chinese offerings.

But what of potential threats to Rogers' China story? Water supply is, he admits, a 'big problem' but notes that the government has recognised this. Energy he believes will not be an issue, reckoning that China is actually far ahead of the West in tackling its future energy requirements. The Chinese financial markets will improve, share structures will become simpler.

Just how committed to his vision is Jim Rogers? "Most 65-year olds don't pack up and start a new life!" In fact that's just what Rogers has done - leaving New York for a new home in Singapore - and his young daughter is learning Mandarin - a facility which he says is the 'best skill' he can make sure she has.

Jim Rogers can be reached through www.jimrogers.com. A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market is published by John Wiley & Sons, price £14.99 in hardback. It is available from the Moneyextra Book Club at a 15% discount.

 

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